Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 4, 2022 15:45:12 GMT
Guys, what is your latest guess on who last two scum are, is?
• Dessimu guesses: RWarehall and Babark • Frostburnphoenix guesses: ZFR and HSL • LordCephy guesses: ...
(When D3 ends, if developments happen, I am curious how well we are doing)
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 4, 2022 16:02:21 GMT
I really liked AmbitionZ's posts. Too bad he doesn't have more time to spare
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 17:56:35 GMT
On D2, when I started playing, I found myself in a weird situation. At the end of D1, 7 people voted Bucktoothgamer, he flipped mafia goon. Buck voted RWarehall, maybe somebody else voted somebody. But! There were 4 players, who did not vote at all: Babark, Catte, Razza and you, LordCephy. For this reason alone, before I became you, I guessed you were mafia. RWarehall suggested, that last 2 scum must be among these 4 non-voters, simply because by the end of the Day, it would have been VERY easy for ANY of the 7 people on Buck's wagon, to jump off and end Day 1 with No-Lynch. Which you got to aggree - sounds VERY logical. This is the main reason I was Town-reading RWarehall hard in the beginning.
My not voting was explained on post #417 as much as I was able to write up a post at the time. In hindsight, I think that the original mafia plan for day two was to get me lynched due to my error in regards to Frost and lack of voting. It wouldn't be unreasonable on day three to be, "Ooops. I was so sure because Frost turned out to be town plus not voting to lynch Buck." If team mafia saw post #417, they probably didn't anticipate that I was hinting at the fact that I had already contacted Lift about pulling out of the game.
The issue with RWarehall saying that the mafia is only to be found among the people that didn't vote is that it's been proven to be not true. Because the mafia picked you for the second night kill, it reveals that my role (which you inherited) was vanilla town and not mafia-aligned. This also means that the reason for my not voting was entirely because of what I said in post #417 and nothing else.
Oh, I have an idea about Joe being possibly town. Let me make a post about that, then I'll get back to who I think could be mafia.
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 18:07:17 GMT
Town Joe - What if Joe's game of name one mafia and two town was his way of trying to make a shout out to the town investigator? It could be a way for that person to safely state what they actually do know without arousing any suspicion about their role and allow them to hopefully continue to hide among the vanilla townspeople.
Edit - Naturally there is the problem that he doesn't know who the investigator is (unless he has the role himself), but it does allow that person to put out information while they continue to investigate just in case.
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 19:03:26 GMT
Guys, what is your latest guess on who last two scum are, is? • Dessimu guesses: RWarehall and Babark • Frostburnphoenix guesses: ZFR and HSL • LordCephy guesses: ... (When D3 ends, if developments happen, I am curious how well we are doing) I know that back on page three of this thread, I said Joe and RW.... but RW and Baba are seriously looking like a team.
1) RWarehall on day three looks like he wants to policy lynch Catte and Razza based on not voting on day one. He's blatantly ignoring the faultiness of this logic considering that I didn't vote on day one either and was vanilla town. Even though you replaced me, the role would be the same. He's also being all Baba is a good guy even though Baba didn't vote either.
2) There was a point in the game on day one that I felt so frustrated with Baba's posts that I threw out a vote for him on the basis that even though I was 100% convinced that Frost was mafia and had zero opinion of anyone else, I would still rather vote him out. There were a few other posts by other people that read like they similarly were getting the feeling that he was trying to intentionally not participate in any meaningful way. I'm talking about the quality of his posts, not the frequency.
3) The thing that makes me most uneasy about RW is that post he made saying how he knows that Joe didn't go anywhere overnight and nobody visited him, essentially advertising that he has an investigation role. If he is an investigator of some sorts, what was he doing skulking around Joe during night two when he suspected Razza and Catte on day two. Why isn't he lurking around them to find out what they're really up to instead of trying to get them policy lynched, especially since he also essentially clears Baba while saying that he didn't actually check Baba out. If you can investigate people, you don't clear people you don't check out.
Note: I just noticed that Joe made a mistake in post #850.
He says that it's cute that Az and ZFR voted for each other but nobody else did. If you look at his own thing, RW and Baba voted for each other in the safety category. They also both mirror each other in other ways. RW names Razza as mafia, and Baba names Catte as mafia.
Even though it looks like RW and Baba are team mafia, it doesn't look much different than when I said that RW and Joe looked like mafia. It's entirely possible that neither Joe nor Baba are mafia and that RW has snuggled up to them both.
And Razza makes an interesting point in #852 about roles that would have me lean towards RW and Baba more so than RW and Joe.
However since you can only lynch one person per day...
Current Guess: RW
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 4, 2022 19:16:56 GMT
Town Joe - What if Joe's game of name one mafia and two town was his way of trying to make a shout out to the town investigator? It could be a way for that person to safely state what they actually do know without arousing any suspicion about their role and allow them to hopefully continue to hide among the vanilla townspeople.
Edit - Naturally there is the problem that he doesn't know who the investigator is (unless he has the role himself), but it does allow that person to put out information while they continue to investigate just in case.
Interesting thought. Town's perspective is a little muddled on the results of the challenge because there is a good chance that Mafia participated. Mafia, however, knows who townies are and therefore, will be able to draw much better opinion as to where majority of Town stands and who may be a good target. But as I am typing this, I have come to realize that simply because Town can only chat openly, during the Day - whatever they say can and will be tried to used against them. Anyway, given your idea about town!Joe gathering info for town!investigator, I would think that Joe suspected Razza to be an investigator of some sort. But now Razza has soft claimed to be a protective role. The way she misses some major details and rediscovers them is a bit baffling I like that Joe has looked through the results, but it is curious if you say he made a mistake. I will look into that more later. May be by accident, but then question is - will any other Townies notice? Or was it intentional?
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 4, 2022 19:30:38 GMT
Catventurer. I think you have forgotten or missed, that on D2, RWarehall claimed to be a Motion Detector. Which is an investigative role of sorts. But on it's own, it says nothing about the alignment of person investigated. The way I understand and RWarehall explained, he visited Joe on N2. He got a result that nothing moved. So, it means both that Joe did not do any action, and that no one else did any action on Joe. Assuming, that RWarehall is not lying. And I believe he is not in this case. Because if any other Townie would have done an action on Joe, or Joe himself would have done any action, then they would call out RWarehall as lying and lynch him then and there. Also, while there is a possibility that Joe has a role and simply did not or could not use it that Night, it looks like RWarehall soft-confirmed Joe to be vanilla. Therefore, I am making a guess that N3, if Joe is Town, he will not be killed by mafia. And while it looks like RWarehall is not lying about his role, it does not say anything about his alignment. He could still be mafia. ... By the way, and this is important. Catte looks like Vanilla Town, based on the way he acts. Razza claimed to have a role, without making an actual full claim yet. But oossibility is there. And from any Townie's perspective, Razza can be Town, can be Mafia. I find it weird and suspicious, how RWarehall is "protecting" Babark with a power role, but wants to lynch Razza with a power role. Scummy, scummy, scummy ... On the other hand... We are expecting last 2 scum to have power roles, right? Or at least one of scum. So, anyone, who claims to have a role, should be investigated, questioned and eventually, chosen to be lynched. Which is all the more reason for town!RWarehall to NOT clear Babark as Town, without having any hard evidence. And therefore, RWarehall again looks scummy 😂😂😂
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 20:21:45 GMT
Catventurer . I think you have forgotten or missed, that on D2.... Sunday evening around 7/8pm (Pacific) - kitchen fire. Day 2 started on Wednesday? At that point, I was mostly observing the goings on in my own house and not giving the thread much of my attention.
Anyway, I'm going to read the rest of your post now. :)
I just wanted to let you know that with day 2, I mostly go by what was summarized here and occasionally look at specific posts.
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 4, 2022 20:27:21 GMT
Ahh, got it. Good that we correct each other 😁👍🏻
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 20:32:13 GMT
I like that Joe has looked through the results, but it is curious if you say he made a mistake. I will look into that more later. May be by accident, but then question is - will any other Townies notice? Or was it intentional? Here's what he observes in post 850
ZFR: 1. HSL (/RW) 2. Ambitionz 2. HSL
AZ: 1. Razza 2. HSL 3. ZFR
Later in the same post he says, "My brain is frazzled now. I think the data shows that me and AZ are the mafia so whoops. It's not me. Catte and Razza didn't join in so they deserve a good lunch. It's cute that AZ and zfr gave each other vote immunity but no-one else did. I hope they're the mafia."
However he doesn't comment on this:
RW: 1 Razza 2 Babark 3 HSL
Babark: 1 Catte 2 HSL 3 RW
It's the same thing. Why is Az and ZFR not suspecting each other bad, but RW and Baba not suspecting each other good. This is why I can see a scenario where Joe is being town and RW seems lock-stepped with Baba, I cannot completely dismiss Joe's behavior as entirely Town-aligned... especially since as of day three, it really does feel like Joe more than anyone else is they guy at the rudder steering things into no specific direction.
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 21:24:37 GMT
And while it looks like RWarehall is not lying about his role, it does not say anything about his alignment. He could still be mafia. ... By the way, and this is important. Catte looks like Vanilla Town, based on the way he acts. Razza claimed to have a role, without making an actual full claim yet. But oossibility is there. And from any Townie's perspective, Razza can be Town, can be Mafia. I find it weird and suspicious, how RWarehall is "protecting" Babark with a power role, but wants to lynch Razza with a power role. Scummy, scummy, scummy ... On the other hand... We are expecting last 2 scum to have power roles, right? Or at least one of scum. So, anyone, who claims to have a role, should be investigated, questioned and eventually, chosen to be lynched. Which is all the more reason for town!RWarehall to NOT clear Babark as Town, without having any hard evidence. And therefore, RWarehall again looks scummy 😂😂😂
I would expect team mafia to have at least one power role if not two. It would be strange for them to be a team of goons.
I don't know what about how Catte acts that makes him look vanilla town. All I knew was that his public persona was that of beloved Sanspoof from Grim Fandango... and I probably should change my GOG username to something that is less squid and more cat considering that having Sanspoof as a public persona made me very much not inclined to vote against Catte.
Oh and if you haven't figure this out about me from reading day one - I'm extra suspicious of vague role claims on day one.
What we could have here - RW = mafia motion detector baba = mafia something something (I don't understand what he was role claiming) Razza = town protective role Joe = town vanilla
HSL just role claimed. He has indy's whip and can use it to force a player to select a different player of his choice. He also said that the reason that Dessimu died on night 2 is because he redirected dedoporn onto you. - see post 890
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 4, 2022 21:31:29 GMT
Seeing as this is role madness, would rolestopper be scum or town? I Don't see much use in a town rolestopper but a scum rolestopper could stack with the NK to prevent detection from the many roles.
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 21:49:36 GMT
Seeing as this is role madness, would rolestopper be scum or town? I Don't see much use in a town rolestopper but a scum rolestopper could stack with the NK to prevent detection from the many roles. It could go either way. For the town side, there is always a value in blocking night kills if you can correctly guess who will be the target.
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 4, 2022 21:49:53 GMT
For bragging rights ZFR is ninja godfather.
Which is likely necessary for balance in this setup.
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 4, 2022 22:02:52 GMT
I Have some info that might be considered spoiler-ish. Lift said it's probably ok but to ask you if you wanted it or not.
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 4, 2022 22:26:47 GMT
I Have some info that might be considered spoiler-ish. Lift said it's probably ok but to ask you if you wanted it or not. It's not like anyone still active in the game can see this thread, so I would say that it's total fine. <3
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 2:55:23 GMT
Woah, so many developments o__O"!!! I have to get ready for work, but CarnethystPhoenix - share away. Our guesses have been made without extra info, so now we can have some fun.
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 5, 2022 3:11:29 GMT
My copier role allows me to copy a role-based night action for use the following night. As a side effect, I know what role-based night actions I was targeted by each night. The night of my death I was targeted by a rolestopper.
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 3:21:37 GMT
I see. I need to think about it. Babark said he targeted you. He failed to protect you. Therefore, he must have done the kill and he is mafia rolestopper. DEATH TO BABARK!!
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 5, 2022 3:26:37 GMT
I see. I need to think about it. Babark said he targeted you. He failed to protect you. Therefore, he must have done the kill and he is mafia rolestopper. DEATH TO BABARK!! I Think he was just unable to prevent the kill myself. Even if he was mafia, he would have still been unable to prevent the kill.
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 4:41:40 GMT
The only way Babark is Town at this point, is if his role can stop other roles, but can not prevent the kill by Lifthrasil's design. And in this case, if Bucktooth (or more specifically, mafia goon, targeted and killed you). Because as I understand your role, you can not copy Town Vanilla (duuuhh, Dess 😂) or Mafia Goon, because they don't have any special powers. Therefore you would not get any result. CarnethystPhoenix, how does it work if you would be targeted not by one, but by a couple of roles? Would you get to choose which to copy? As a side effect, you become the most valuable Town player, with all the information you would learn
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 4:43:25 GMT
Now a good question is, which one of two - HSL or Dedo is lying. Although it's most likely dedoporno and if he flips Town, HSL becomes public enemy #1 next Day.
Given the circumstances, they should most likely go ahead and lynch dedoporno
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 4:44:21 GMT
BUT!! Babark is voting Dedo. He would not vote his last scum buddy, would he? Something is not right
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 5, 2022 5:58:25 GMT
Vote Status: Official Vote Count - Post 851Joe 1 - Catte 808 Catte 1 - babark 846 Razza 2 - ZFR 738, RWare 776 not voting: Joe, dedo, Ambition, Razza, HSL Razza is closest to Lynch at L-3
Updates
860: Ambiti0nZ is 'hated' for the rest of Today (one less vote needed to lynch) 875: Razza votes for baba 890: HSL makes big reveal, accuses dedo and promises more tomorrow 907: RW unvotes Razza 911: baba votes dedo 912: Az makes weirdo post about traveling still, not being caught up and may miss voting on day 2
913: ZFR votes dedo 914 / 915: Az makes more posts, including one about how he's not going to vote
Count
Baba 1 - Razza 875
Joe 1 - Catte 808 Dedo 2 - baba 911, ZFR 913
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Catventurer
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Post by Catventurer on Jul 5, 2022 6:07:10 GMT
BUT!! Babark is voting Dedo. He would not vote his last scum buddy, would he? Something is not right Let me tell you about the game where I was on team mafia and did absolutely nothing to prevent one of my teammates from getting lynched just to maintain my cover....
Actually it's 11pm here and the neighbors have finally stopped blowing crap up, so I'm off to bed. I'll have to tell you about that tomorrow if you're interested.
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 6:42:09 GMT
Good story, Cephy 😂😂😂
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 6:49:16 GMT
I give AZ some space to breath, because for good sportsmanship, we choose to believe rl things and not to missuse rl reasons to further our in-game goal. You know, we are a good bunch of people like that. So, imagine yourself in AZ's shoes: driving, eating, sleeping, sightseeing with partner, moving or whatever. Takes a lot of time. All he can do, is come back to us as much as possible and makes his few posts really count. Or inform Mod and discuss flexible timelines. I am getting impression that AZ is vanilla Town though. ... For whatever reason, it makes me laugh every time you call Babark "Baba" 😄 ... To do nothing to prevent you scum buddy from getting lynched is one thing. Voting together with Town, and pushing your scum buddy towards lynch is entirely different. And I don't see dedo+Babark team, because I don't see Babark viting his last scum buddy. Unless they both agreed to do so, in case dedoporno gets caught. ...
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Dessimu
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Post by Dessimu on Jul 5, 2022 10:42:42 GMT
By the way, CarnethystPhoenix, how did you come up with idea of ZFR possibly being Ninja Gogfather?
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 5, 2022 13:30:14 GMT
By the way, CarnethystPhoenix , how did you come up with idea of ZFR possibly being Ninja Gogfather? The way buck was lynched and hyper seems willing to sacrifice himself.
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Post by CarnethystPhoenix on Jul 5, 2022 13:31:25 GMT
(EBWOP) Also balance reasons.
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